Liquidity forecasting

When central banks enter into transactions to implement their monetary policy, they necessarily make use of their own balance sheets. Whether they are undertaking open market operations (OMO) to inject or drain funds from the banking system, or allowing the banks to use standing facilities to borrow or deposit funds, the central bank’s balance sheet will be impacted: the funds in question are commercial bank balances held at the central bank. Ideally, operations undertaken to implement policy should have a predictable impact on the economy, via the banking system. This means that the central bank needs to know the context in which it is operating: what is the current availability of commercial bank balances compared with the level of demand, and how is this expected to change in the near term? An accurate current picture and good forecast of the central bank’s likely future balance sheet is required. The same information on the central bank’s balance sheet is also needed if the central bank wishes to manage liquidity pro-actively. Most central banks do, whether it is to avoid a shortage of liquidity impacting on the payment system, or an excess impacting short-term yields and/or the exchange rate. This Handbook examines the issues involved in forecasting the central bank’s balance sheet. This is normally referred to as ‘liquidity forecasting’ since the item on the balance sheet which central banks typically try to manage is commercial banks balances, a subset of high-powered liquidity.Liquidity forecasting

Central bank management of surplus liquidity

Following a CCBS seminar in London, in February 2006, on the subject of central bank management of surplus liquidity, participants were invited to contribute to a collection of papers - case-studies of how a range of central banks around the world have tackled or are tackling the issues which arise from excess liquidity in the banking system. One of the aims was to produce something quite quickly. Much more remains to be said about the management of excess liquidity than is covered in this volume; but we hope that it will prove useful material to others who are addressing the same issues. Interested readers are also referred to the CCBS Lecture Series no. 3: “Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks”, by Joe Ganley.Central Bank,Management, Surplus, Liquidity

Developing financial markets

Central banks have an interest in well-functioning money markets, foreign exchange markets, and secondary markets for government securities. Efficient financial markets support both the monetary stability and financial stability goals of the central bank; and more broadly should benefit economic development. Well-functioning money markets support the transmission of an interest-rate based monetary policy and can provide information to the central bank. Liquid foreign exchange markets can help to stabilise the exchange rate and reduce transaction costs in cross-border trade and transfers. The development of these markets will support the later introduction of related financial markets such as repo and derivatives, which should in turn lead to improved risk management and financial stability, thereby enhancing economic welfare. Liquidity and price stability in short-term interest rate markets can support market-making, and thus liquidity in the securities markets. This in turn should reduce the cost of issuance for the government and other fixed-interest issuers. Indeed the secondary market for government securities may act as a catalyst for wider fixed income securities markets development: its yield curve is the benchmark for the pricing of the private sector credit. The advancement of these markets should be accompanied by the development of the appropriate market infrastructure such as robust payment and settlement systems and supportive legal framework. Many developing economies are characterised by illiquidity in these core markets, and in most cases a surplus of central bank money, in the form of excess commercial bank balances with the central bank. This handbook will look at what the central bank, and the Ministry of Finance as issuer of government securities, could do (and in some cases should not do) in support of the development of these markets.Developing financial markets

Central Banking in Low Income Countries

Central banks play a significant role in providing the macroeconomic context for development and poverty reduction. Promoting low inflation and currency stability is not just IMF mantra; economic growth suffers as a result of high inflation or currency instability, with the poor and vulnerable the worst affected. Central banking in most countries aims to achieve monetary stability – a sound currency, with a stable exchange rate and/or low inflation – and financial sector stability – sound banks which provide good services without undertaking excessive risk, and an effective non-cash payment system. Most central banks deal with their governments (principally the Ministry of Finance) and commercial banks. They rarely deal with individuals. But the whole population will benefit from good central banking: good quality bank notes and low inflation are important directly to everyone; and it is typically the case that failure to deliver these harms most the vulnerable in society. Relatively small but well-targeted inputs to strengthen these functions may be one of the most effective forms of aid provision. Millions can benefit very rapidly from a few months of well-targeted advice. Financial sector stability and financial market development will normally take longer to deliver results than improvements in the area of monetary stability. But they can support sustainable economic growth, to the benefit of all. It is probably harder to ensure that financial sector development will provide direct benefits to the poor and vulnerable, as they may not be users of the services; and microfinance development is normally led by the government and commercial providers rather than the by central bank. But there are important areas for central bank involvement: banking supervision, microfinance supervision, and the development of widely-available non-cash payment services. This paper aims to provide a broad understanding of what central banks are, focussing in particular on their functions in developing countries with a view to facilitating donors in targeting and monitoring effectively the provision of aid. It was written for the UK's Department for International Development, and is targeted at DFID – and other donor organisation – officials working with central banks. It aims to describe, in non-technical terms, what central banks are and what the appropriate role for them in developing countries might be. The final chapters look at institution and capacity building, and donor co-ordination.Central Banking, Low, Income, Countries

Spatial matter density mapping of the STAGES Abell A901/2 supercluster field with 3D lensing

We present weak lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope(HST)/Space Telescope A901/902 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES) survey to study the three-dimensional spatial distribution of matter and galaxies in the Abell 901/902 supercluster complex. Our method improves over the existing 3D lensing mapping techniques by calibrating and removing redshift bias and accounting for the effects of the radial elongation of 3D structures. We also include the first detailed noise analysis of a 3D lensing map, showing that even with deep HST-quality data, only the most massive structures, for example M200≳ 1015M⊙h-1 at z∼ 0.8, can be resolved in 3D with any reasonable redshift accuracy (Δz≈ 0.15). We compare the lensing map to the stellar mass distribution and find luminous counterparts for all mass peaks detected with a peak significance >3σ. We see structures in and behind the z= 0.165 foreground supercluster, finding structure directly behind the A901b cluster at z∼ 0.6 and also behind the south-west (SW) group at z∼ 0.7. This 3D structure viewed in projection has no significant impact on recent mass estimates of A901b or the SW group components SWa and SWb. © 2011 The Authors Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © 2011 RAS

Identification of systemic immune response markers through metabolomic profiling of plasma from calves given an intra-nasally delivered respiratory vaccine

International audienceVaccination procedures within the cattle industry are important disease control tools to minimize economic and welfare burdens associated with respiratory pathogens. However, new vaccine, antigen and carrier technologies are required to combat emerging viral strains and enhance the efficacy of respiratory vaccines, particularly at the point of pathogen entry. New technologies, specifically metabolomic profiling, could be applied to identify metabolite immune-correlates representative of immune protection following vaccination aiding in the design and screening of vaccine candidates. This study for the first time demonstrates the ability of untargeted UPLC-MS metabolomic profiling to identify metabolite immune correlates characteristic of immune responses following mucosal vaccination in calves. Male Holstein Friesian calves were vaccinated with Pfizer Rispoval® PI3 + RSV intranasal vaccine and metabolomic profiling of post-vaccination plasma revealed 12 metabolites whose peak intensities differed significantly from controls. Plasma levels of glycocholic acid, N-[(3α,5β,12α)-3,12-Dihydroxy-7,24-dioxocholan-24-yl]glycine, uric acid and biliverdin were found to be significantly elevated in vaccinated animals following secondary vaccine administration, whereas hippuric acid significantly decreased. In contrast, significant upregulation of taurodeoxycholic acid and propionylcarnitine levels were confined to primary vaccine administration. Assessment of such metabolite markers may provide greater information on the immune pathways stimulated from vaccine formulations and benchmarking early metabolomic responses to highly immunogenic vaccine formulations could provide a means for rapidly assessing new vaccine formulations. Furthermore, the identification of metabolic systemic immune response markers which relate to specific cell signaling pathways of the immune system could allow for targeted vaccine design to stimulate key pathways which can be assessed at the metabolic level

CD4-Transgenic Zebrafish Reveal Tissue-Resident Th2- and Regulatory T Cell-like Populations and Diverse Mononuclear Phagocytes.

CD4+ T cells are at the nexus of the innate and adaptive arms of the immune system. However, little is known about the evolutionary history of CD4+ T cells, and it is unclear whether their differentiation into specialized subsets is conserved in early vertebrates. In this study, we have created transgenic zebrafish with vibrantly labeled CD4+ cells allowing us to scrutinize the development and specialization of teleost CD4+ leukocytes in vivo. We provide further evidence that CD4+ macrophages have an ancient origin and had already emerged in bony fish. We demonstrate the utility of this zebrafish resource for interrogating the complex behavior of immune cells at cellular resolution by the imaging of intimate contacts between teleost CD4+ T cells and mononuclear phagocytes. Most importantly, we reveal the conserved subspecialization of teleost CD4+ T cells in vivo. We demonstrate that the ancient and specialized tissues of the gills contain a resident population of il-4/13b-expressing Th2-like cells, which do not coexpress il-4/13a Additionally, we identify a contrasting population of regulatory T cell-like cells resident in the zebrafish gut mucosa, in marked similarity to that found in the intestine of mammals. Finally, we show that, as in mammals, zebrafish CD4+ T cells will infiltrate melanoma tumors and obtain a phenotype consistent with a type 2 immune microenvironment. We anticipate that this unique resource will prove invaluable for future investigation of T cell function in biomedical research, the development of vaccination and health management in aquaculture, and for further research into the evolution of adaptive immunity.European Research Council (Grant IDs: ERC-2011-StG-282059 (PROMINENT), 677501 (ZF_Blood)), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Grant ID: BB/L007401/1), Dowager Countess Eleanor Peel Trust (Grant ID: TH-PRCL.FID2228), Medical Research Council, Department for International Development (Career Development Award Fellowship MR/J009156/1), Medical Research Foundation (Grant ID: R/140419), Cancer Research UK (Grant ID: C45041/A14953), Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Council to the Wellcome Trust–Medical Research Council Cambridge Stem Cell Institute (core support grant)This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from The American Association of Immunologists via https://doi.org/10.4049/​jimmunol.160095

Segue 2: A Prototype of the Population of Satellites of Satellites

We announce the discovery of a new Milky Way satellite Segue 2 found in the data of the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). We followed this up with deeper imaging and spectroscopy on the Multiple Mirror Telescope. From this, we derive a luminosity of M_v = -2.5, a half-light radius of 34 pc and a systemic velocity of -40$ km/s. Our MMT data also provides evidence for a stream around Segue 2 at a similar heliocentric velocity, and the SEGUE data show that it is also present in neighboring fields. We resolve the velocity dispersion of Segue 2 as 3.4 km/s and the possible stream as about 7 km/s. This object shows points of comparison with other recent discoveries, Segue 1, Boo II and Coma. We speculate that all four objects may be representatives of a population of satellites of satellites -- survivors of accretion events that destroyed their larger but less dense parents. They are likely to have formed at redshifts z > 10 and are good candidates for fossils of the reionization epoch.Comment: MNRAS, Submitte

Symmetry Decomposition of Potentials with Channels

We discuss the symmetry decomposition of the average density of states for the two dimensional potential $V=x^2y^2$ and its three dimensional generalisation $V=x^2y^2+y^2z^2+z^2x^2$. In both problems, the energetically accessible phase space is non-compact due to the existence of infinite channels along the axes. It is known that in two dimensions the phase space volume is infinite in these channels thus yielding non-standard forms for the average density of states. Here we show that the channels also result in the symmetry decomposition having a much stronger effect than in potentials without channels, leading to terms which are essentially leading order. We verify these results numerically and also observe a peculiar numerical effect which we associate with the channels. In three dimensions, the volume of phase space is finite and the symmetry decomposition follows more closely that for generic potentials --- however there are still non-generic effects related to some of the group elements

OCTOPUS: an open cosmogenic isotope and luminescence database

We present a database of cosmogenic radionuclide and luminescence measurements in fluvial sediment. With support from the Australian National Data Service (ANDS) we have built infrastructure for hosting and maintaining the data at the University of Wollongong and making this available to the research community via an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)-compliant web service. The cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) part of the database consists of 10Be and 26Al measurements in modern fluvial sediment samples from across the globe, along with ancillary geospatial vector and raster layers, including sample site, basin outline, digital elevation model, gradient raster, flow-direction and flow-accumulation rasters, atmospheric pressure raster, and CRN production scaling and topographic shielding factor rasters. Sample metadata are comprehensive and include all necessary information for the recalculation of denudation rates using CAIRN, an open-source program for calculating basin-wide denudation rates from 10Be and 26Al data. Further all data have been recalculated and harmonised using the same program. The luminescence part of the database consists of thermoluminescence (TL) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) measurements in fluvial sediment samples from stratigraphic sections and sediment cores from across the Australian continent and includes ancillary vector and raster geospatial data. The database can be interrogated and downloaded via a custom-built web map service. More advanced interrogation and exporting to various data formats, including the ESRI Shapefile and Google Earth\u27s KML, is also possible via the Web Feature Service (WFS) capability running on the OCTOPUS server. Use of open standards also ensures that data layers are visible to other OGC-compliant data-sharing services. OCTOPUS and its associated data curation framework provide the opportunity for researchers to reuse previously published but otherwise unusable CRN and luminescence data. This delivers the potential to harness old but valuable data that would otherwise be lost to the research community